15 Jul Goals Are Way up in the NHL This Year: Is it a Trend or an Anomaly?
Should you feel like there are a slew of goals in the NHL up to now this calendar year, you’d be right. What’s all this talk about making the nets bigger, anyway? After only six days of activity, the OVER/UNDER record for all NHL games is 20-9-7 and we have started to see books put a blanket total of 5.5 on all matchups. If this scoring keeps up, we can even see some sixes on the plank.
Since 2006, the NHL’s average overall goals per match has shrunk between 5.30 and 5.70 but through just under a week this year, the average has produced a massive leap to 6.5. No significant changes were made into the rulebook from the offseason, the nets are the same size and goalies haven’t started wearing smaller gear. So the questions to ask here are why is scoring upward with over a goal each match? Will this tendency retain up? And above all, how can we profit off this tendency today and going forward?
Looking backward , the average of 6.5 goals scored per game this season is actually the most since 1993, once the average for the entire season was 6.5 — down from 7.25 the previous year. It appears odd that the league average has jumped by so much with no basic changes to the game and what it actually suggests is that trend likely won’t last.
The public has been crying for more goals for years and the NHL’s evaluations were complete garbage last year. My concept is that the team has leveraged its higher-scoring matchups toward the start of the season to generate a small bit of additional interest and following the shameless marketing stunt that was the World Cup of Hockey, ” I don’t believe that it’s too much of a conspiracy theory.
This is not the first time groups have come out of the gate flying. In 2010, the O/U record for many games following 36 matchups was 22-14 along with also the goals per game average was 6.33. In addition, in all but one year since 2008, the typical overall goals per match through 36 games was greater than the average in the close of the season. Make no mistake here, this tendency will level off, it’s only a matter of if.
NHL goalies now are combining to get an .898 save percent. That is the lowest since the 1995-96 year and will be the No. 1 identifier the overall goals per match average can only return. Since 2005-06 the average NHL save percentage has gone up almost every year and reached its peak this past year at .915. Save percentages falling a whole 1.7 percentage for no reason isn’t sustainable. The guys in the crease will figure it out, trust me.
My suggestion for right now would be to hammer OVERs. The definition of insanity is to do something over and over again and expect different outcomes so taking an UNDER right today when they are hitting at just 25 percent might just land you a place in the nuthouse. That said, kindly accepting OVERs is not the way to go either. Select your spots, examine the goalie matchups and when totals start going to six, or so the average levels away, just be a bit more careful.
I for one hope this isn’t a loony anomaly because the puck up to now this year has been exceptionally entertaining and no one wants to bet UNDERs. That is only a pipe dream since I fear this tendency is on the clock take advantage while you still can.
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